Predictive Analytics · Shopify & DTC Brands

Stop Guessing. Start Predicting Revenue.

Shopify Analytics tells you what happened. Predictive analytics tells you what's about to happen. I build custom ML models for Shopify brands that forecast churn, optimize ad spend, predict inventory needs, and identify high-LTV customers before your competitors do.

Book a Free Shopify Analytics Audit See DTC Case Studies

Free strategy call, no obligation

Works with Shopify, Klaviyo, Recharge, Triple Whale

25-40% improvement in ROAS for clients

Shopify Admin API & Reports

Klaviyo & Postscript

Recharge & Subscriptions

Triple Whale & Northbeam

Power BI & Looker Studio

Python ML (scikit-learn, Prophet, XGBoost)

Is Your Shopify Data Holding You Back?

These are the data blind spots I fix most often for growing DTC brands.

"We're flying blind on retention"

You know your repeat purchase rate, but you don't know WHICH customers will buy again, when, or how much. Retention feels like a lottery.

"Ad spend is eating our margins"

CPA is rising, ROAS is dropping, and you can't tell which channels actually drive profitable customers vs. one-time buyers.

"Inventory forecasting is reactive"

You're either stocking out on winners or sitting on dead inventory. Your reorder decisions are based on gut feel, not demand signals.

"Data lives in 5 disconnected apps"

Shopify, Klaviyo, GA4, your 3PL, your ad platforms. Nobody has a single source of truth, so decisions get delayed or duplicated.

What I Build for Shopify Brands

Predictive systems that plug directly into your existing tech stack, no app bloat, just actionable insights.

Predictive Customer LTV & Churn Scoring

A machine learning model that scores every Shopify customer on predicted lifetime value and churn probability, updated weekly.

Feature engineering: RFM, subscription status, engagement decay
Output: Risk/Value tiering with recommended next-best-actions
Integration: Syncs to Klaviyo segments, CRM, or CSV
Accuracy: Back-tested 12-18 months, 75-90% precision

Marketing Attribution & ROAS Optimization

Move beyond last-click attribution. Build a data-driven model that maps ad spend to actual customer profitability, not just first purchases.

Multi-touch attribution aligned with LTV, not AOV
Channel payback period & margin contribution tracking
Budget shift recommendations: cut waste, scale winners
Works with Meta, Google, TikTok, Pinterest, Affiliates

Demand Forecasting & Inventory Optimization

Predict SKU-level demand 14-60 days out using seasonality, promo calendars, and velocity trends. Set smart reorder points that prevent stockouts.

Time-series forecasting: Prophet, ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing
Lead-time & safety stock calculations
Dead stock & markdown alert system
3PL/warehouse integration ready

Executive Shopify Analytics Dashboard

A unified Power BI or Looker Studio dashboard that merges Shopify, ad, email, and inventory data into one view your leadership team will actually use.

Real-time revenue, margin, and cohort retention tracking
Predictive LTV & churn heatmaps
Inventory turnover & reorder alerts
Automated weekly PDF/Slack summaries for founders

Transparent Pricing for DTC Growth

Fixed-scope projects designed for Shopify brands scaling from $10K-$1M+ monthly revenue.

Shopify Data Diagnostic

Validate your data readiness, identify quick wins, and map predictive feasibility.

$750 Flat fee

90-min strategy & data audit call
Shopify + App ecosystem review
Gap analysis & quick-win report
Fixed-scope proposal for build

Book Diagnostic

Predictive Analytics Build

End-to-end model training, dashboard integration, and automation setup.

$2,500 - $5,500 Project-based

Shopify API + App data pipeline setup
ML model training (LTV/Churn/Demand)
Klaviyo/CRM segment sync
Executive dashboard + documentation

Get Custom Quote

DTC Growth Retainer

Ongoing model monitoring, cohort analysis, and quarterly strategy optimization.

$800/mo Cancel anytime

Monthly model retraining & accuracy checks
Cohort & channel ROI reviews
Dashboard updates & new metric builds
Priority Slack/Email support

Discuss Retainer

Most brands recover project cost within 45-90 days through ad spend optimization, reduced stockouts, and improved retention ROI.

How We Build Your Predictive Engine

A lightweight, app-integrated process that doesn't disrupt your store operations.

Discovery & Data Mapping

We review your Shopify setup, connected apps (Klaviyo, Recharge, GA4, 3PL), and business goals. I map your data sources and identify predictive opportunities.

Data Pipeline & Cleaning

I connect to the Shopify Admin API, export historical orders, customer behavior, and marketing spend. Data is cleaned, deduplicated, and structured for modeling.

Model Training & Validation

I train predictive algorithms (LTV regression, churn classification, demand forecasting) and validate against holdout periods. We choose the model that balances accuracy with business actionability.

Integration & Dashboard Deployment

Predictions are synced to your marketing tools (Klaviyo segments, CRM tags) and visualized in a live Power BI/Looker dashboard. Automation handles weekly updates.

Handover & Optimization

You receive the model, documentation, and a training session. We run a 30-day optimization window to refine thresholds, adjust forecasts, and ensure full team adoption.

Technical & App Stack

Shopify Admin API & GraphQL Exports

Python: pandas, scikit-learn, XGBoost, Prophet, lifetimes

Klaviyo API, Recharge, Triple Whale, Northbeam

Automation: Zapier, Make, GitHub Actions, cron jobs

Visualization: Power BI, Looker Studio, Streamlit

Privacy: GDPR/CCPA-compliant data handling & anonymization

DTC Predictive Wins

Real Shopify brands that moved from reactive reporting to predictive growth, click any to see the full breakdown.

Beauty DTC · $450K/mo

Reduced CAC by 34% with LTV-Based Ad Optimization

Predictive CLV scoring revealed Meta ads drove high-volume but low-LTV buyers. Budget shifted to creator partnerships + email. LTV:CAC improved from 1.9x to 3.4x.

View portfolio

Apparel Subscription · Recharge

Cut Churn by 28% with Predictive Win-Back Campaigns

Built churn probability model synced to Klaviyo. Triggered personalized offers 14 days before predicted cancellation. Recovered $210K in annual recurring revenue.

View case study

Home Goods · Shopify Plus

Eliminated Stockouts During Peak Season

Implemented 30-day demand forecasting across 1,200 SKUs. Adjusted safety stock + reorder points. Reduced stockout days by 85% during Q4 holiday surge.

View portfolio

Common Questions from Shopify Founders

Do you need full Shopify admin access?

Yes, but only read-only API access or export permissions. I don't need to modify your store, apps, or theme. All data extraction is done securely via Shopify Admin API or CSV exports, and your data is never shared or stored long-term.

Will this replace my current Shopify apps (Triple Whale, Elevar, etc.)?

No. I build on top of your existing stack. Predictive outputs are synced back to your apps (e.g., Klaviyo segments, dashboard tools). Think of it as a "brain upgrade" for your current data ecosystem, not an app replacement.

How long until we see predictive insights?

Most brands see their first predictive models deployed within 14-21 days. Initial LTV/Churn scores and demand forecasts are available immediately. Accuracy improves over the next 30-45 days as the models learn your brand's specific patterns.

What data minimums do I need to start?

Ideally 6-12 months of order history with at least 1,000+ customers. If you're newer (<$50K/mo), we can start with foundational tracking and cohort modeling, then layer in predictive features as your data grows.

How do you measure ROI on predictive analytics?

We track: (1) Reduction in CAC via smarter ad allocation, (2) Increase in repeat purchase rate/LTV via targeted retention, (3) Decrease in stockout/dead inventory costs, and (4) Time saved on manual reporting. Most brands see 3-5x ROI within 60 days.

Ready to Predict, Not Just Report?

Let's Audit Your Shopify Data & Map Predictive Wins

Tell me about your store, current stack, and growth bottlenecks. First call is free, no pitch, no obligation. Just a clear path to data-driven scale.

Book Your Free Shopify Audit

Remote worldwide · Works with all Shopify plans · Typically respond within 24 hours · adeyemi@adediranadeyemi.com